After ‘Ant-Man 3’s’ Second Weekend Box Office Collapse, Should Marvel Get Concerned?

The box office performance of "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" suffered significantly in its second outing. The third Marvel film, which stars Paul Rudd's subatomic hero, saw a 69% dip in ticket sales from its $105 million opening weekend. This led to the most significant second-weekend decline in the franchise's history.

The movie's performance has generated a lot of discussion among analysts and experts: Is it a blip or an inflection moment for Hollywood's most valuable asset? Paul Dergarabedian, a senior Comscore analyst, believes that the solution is probably somewhere in the middle.

According to Dergarabedian, "as far as second-weekend drops go, anything in the 70% region is fairly big." "Yet films with opening weekends of over $100 million are typically front-loaded. Sometimes, the adage "the bigger they are, the harder they fall" applies.

To put it another way, its second-weekend box office of $32 million is not particularly encouraging this early in its theatrical run, but let's see where ticket sales finish up by the time "Quantumania" exits the big screen.

With the first $100 million opening of the year and by far the strongest opening weekend in the diminutive Marvel trilogy, "Ant-Man 3" got off to a strong start. And this despite receiving some of the worst critics and audience ratings in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

According to Jeff Bock, an analyst at Exhibitor Relations, "I don't think it's a significant concern." Notwithstanding any decreases, "it had by far the biggest opening of the series."

There is precedent as well. Major tentpoles frequently generate the majority of their revenue during the first weekend after release. Marvel films are increasingly front-loaded because viewers want to watch them as soon as possible to prevent spoilers, and "Quantumania," the MCU's 31st entry and the start of Phase 5's slate, is no different with a $200 million budget.

However, blockbuster movies are now more expensive on opening weekend according to theater owners, who choose ticket prices. According to studio sources, second-weekend attendance declines (as compared to ticket sales) aren't always as significant as they seem. But, the fact that "Ant-Man 3" was aimed at the same younger male demographic as Universal's brand-new horror comedy "Cocaine Bear," which exceeded projections with $23 million over the weekend, didn't help.

Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOfficePro, adds, "Coming off a holiday weekend doesn't help either. (In advance of Presidents Day, "Ant-Man 3" was released.)

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